Barring weather-related anomalies, I have a hunch that Sunday’s Belgian Grand Prix is going to tell us a lot more about the destination of this season’s title. That may sound self-evident, but let me explain.

Jenson Button has remarked that this race and the next one in Monza constitute a make or break double-header for McLaren and I absolutely agree McLaren could very easily have a couple of poor races and then find themselves out of it with five races to go, because the tracks outside of Europe really favour Red Bull.

CIRCUIT CHARACTERISTICS

The reason Spa-Francorchamps represents such an opportunity for McLaren, and perhaps even more so for Ferrari, is because it is a medium-downforce circuit.

Ferrari, lest we forget, were even stronger than Red Bull at Hockenheim, which is similar on that score, although obviously the teams’ aero packages have changed since then.

As for McLaren, there is the long climb up the hill from Eau Rouge to Les Combes which will play to their Mercedes engine and F-duct. That said, I think the talk of relative engine power and straight-line speed has been slightly overplayed. Most teams have the F-duct operational now and I do not think Red Bull will be too far behind on the straights.

EAU ROUGE

Spa is rightly known as one of the classic circuits and I am extremely proud to say that I won here in 1999. Besides which, my partner Karen is Belgian, so I have to say I like it…

Nestled in the Ardennes it is picturesque (when it is not tipping down) while the circuit is long and challenging for the drivers. Eau Rouge is the signature turn, although it is not the challenge it once was. It used to be very bumpy but now the track has been resurfaced it is a lot easier for the drivers.

It is ‘easy’ flat (if there is such a thing at 180mph), which means you can just about stay on full throttle. That said, the compression is still unlike anything else in F1. Normally you just have lateral g-force, but here you have longitudinal g-force as well.

It is the only time we experience a bit of what it might be like to be a fighter pilot. It feels like you are being sucked down into the ground rather than pulled down.

WET WEATHER

One thing we can say with almost total confidence (well, 60 per cent, according to the latest weather forecasts) is that rain will have some bearing at the weekend’s action. It has been torrential thus far.

Changeable conditions allow some drivers to shine, because grip levels go down and the difficulty of finding the edge increases. For that reason I think it will be a very telling weekend for the intra-team battle as well as the inter-team battle.

Jenson has made good decisions in the wet this year. I do not believe he is necessarily better in the wet than Lewis, but we have seen that in changeable conditions his quick thinking has come to the fore. I would also expect Fernando Alonso to dominate Felipe Massa.

It is a tough one to call, but I just about favour Ferrari and Fernando at this stage.

David Coulthard is writing on behalf of Red Bull Racing F1, for whom he acts as a consultant.

Stop the presses. Miracles can happen.

I’m not sure whether Michael Schumacher was ordered to apologise by Mercedes, whether the morning papers got to him (it would be a first) or whether he has truly had a change of heart over his performance in Sunday’s Hungarian Grand Prix, when he nearly put Rubens Barrichello into a wall at 200mph, but we may have to revise our opinions of him.

Perhaps the 2010 Michael has realised the error of his ways? Certainly this would have been completely out of character in his first F1 career.

I remember a conversation I had with him at Monza in 1998. It was the race after he had crashed into the back of me at Spa; the one where he sought me out in the McLaren garage afterwards and gave the watching snappers something of a gift-wrapped opportunity by throttling yours truly to the words: “Are you trying to ——- kill me?”

Anyway, we met at a neutral venue, the catering tent adjacent to Bernie Ecclestone’s paddock home. Michael was refusing to accept any responsibility for what happened in Belgium.

I asked him whether he had ever been wrong about anything at any point in his life. “Not that I can remember,” he responded.

In many respects that story, for me, summed up his flawed genius. A brilliant driver but an outcast from the sporting Hall of Fame because of occasional bouts of unsportsmanlike behaviour.

Sunday’s episode at the Hungaroring was merely the latest in a long line of on-track indiscretions. Adelaide 1994, Jerez 1997, Monaco 2005… not only does Michael employ the crudest tactics imaginable on occasion, he refuses to apologise for them, even when demonstrably in the wrong.

Until Monday that is.

So are we to believe he has turned a corner? Or is he simply trying to stem the tide of moral outrage?

One thing I would say for him is that he has shown a good deal more humility in press conferences this year; smiling, patient, open about his lack of success. Mind you, given his on-track form I guess he hasn’t had much choice.

There is no doubt that he screwed up badly on Sunday, apology or no apology. It is no exaggeration to say that at that speed, contact might have been fatal. When wheels touch, cars can go airborne and once that happens you are to some extent in the lap of the gods.

A driver’s head is exposed and as we saw with Felipe Massa in Hungary last year, it does not require much in the way of debris to cause serious damage.

Michael was clearly in the wrong. As Rubens said, you pick a line and stick to it. You do not drift progressively further over towards your rival, and certainly not when he has pulled up alongside you with a wall on the other side of him. But it was his complete lack of contrition afterwards that really stuck in the craw.

“We know certain drivers have certain views, and then there’s Rubens,” he said as if the Brazilian was merely getting upset because of their history together at Ferrari.

That arrogance was tolerated, even excused, when he was winning races. It was part of the whole package. Now that he is being regularly shown up by his younger team-mate and compatriot, Nico Rosberg, such lapses of character will not wash.

Until he made his apology, the calls for him to quit immediately were shrill. I wonder whether his mea culpa will make any difference.

Personally I do not subscribe to the view that he should be hounded out now. He is not the worst driver on the grid and if he believes he still has one big punch left in him, and someone is willing to pay him to deliver it, he can make his own mind up about how long he should continue.

But he should be warned; if he chooses to stay, episodes such as the one we saw on Sunday will badly damage his legacy. An apology was a start, but he has a way to go before he can be considered a true champion in every sense of the word.

David Coulthard writes for the Telegraph F1 Pages on behalf of Red Bull Racing F1, for whom he acts as a consultant.

So 2010 arrived and Mr Alonso was proudly unveiled at Ferrari and after a lot of barging and charging, cutting and weaving team mate Felipe Massa of the track, almost from the start of the season, the Spaniard finally managed to do it - bend a top team round to his way of thinking, to make the team his own, and worst of all return Ferrari back to those dreadful team order days when Michael Schumacher ruled the roost.

We truly feel for Felipe – he’s been nothing but 100% loyal to Ferrari for all his years at the team and indeed could have won the championship for them in 2008 had it not been for poor reliability at the start of that season. He doesn’t deserve to be treated like some F2 newbie who’s just recently arrived into the Formula One arena.

So how did Alonso do it? Blackmail like he tried at McLaren? Secret meetings behind Felipes back? Securing a contract which gives him number one status at Ferrari? Who knows and quite frankly – who cares. We think Alonso is a spolit brat who spits the dummy whenever he doesn’t get his own way – like in Valencia and Silverstone when he clearly thought his view on things was correct and the race stewards and FIA were completely wrong – to the extent he confidently announced to the media that the FIA were fixing the championship!!!! This behaviour clearly shows that he’s living in a dream world where everything and everyone revolve around him - and the worst thing is Ferrari are being dragged into these crazy and extreme ways by siding with Alonso’s petty whims and backing his comments in the media!!!

Mark our words – Alonso will stoop to any depth to get his own way and Ferrari’s reputation and legendary relationship with the FIA are being severely strained by a driver who couldn’t spell “team” let alone be part of one.  Let’s not forget this is the same driver who tried to destroy McLaren with his disgusting antics and “kiss and tell” stories to the FIA, when he realised he wasn’t going to be allowed number one status, and of course the “Crashgate” episode at Renault which we mentioned earlier.  The question has to be asked – What will he do to Ferrari if they don’t play along? Get them a $100000 fine? Get them dragged up in front of the World Motor Sport Council? Or what about frequent race penalties for unfair driving (why should I give a place back to another driver after I overtake him by cutting a corner? ). Oh no wait a minute – these are all things he’s got Ferrai involved in already.  And trust us it’s just the tip of the iceberg – He’s trouble boys and you’ve placed all your eggs in a very unstable basket….

You know what the worst part is? Us, the fans, are being deprived of real wheel to wheel racing action again - instead we’re stuck with robotic drivers who don’t actually race anymore - they simply obey every whim from the pitlane and the team managers decide who can and can’t win the race depending on crucial factors like “do we like him  more than the other one?”.

Endless discussions have taken place, there’s been FOTA forums and masses of polls and question surveys asking the vital question.

What do Formula One fans want and how can we improve “the show”?

Simple really – let racing drivers race – unimpeded and without fear of that dreaded radio message that asks them to stop being a racing driver. If not then F1 really is just a “show” and, like Big Brother, becomes so unbelievable and blatantly fixed that your fan base feel their intelligence is being insulted and lose interest. 

If Grand Prix race results are to be engineered then it’s not real racing anymore and the championship simply can’t be taken seriously as the pinnacle of motorsport… More like that really bad acting you get in WWF wrestling…and that’s something none of us want!

Silverstone – A lap with DC

As you head under the lights on the start-finish straight, take a deep breath, you are about to hit Coppice in seventh gear. If the weather is good you will be able to take it easy flat, at 170mph, trusting in the physical phenomenon of downforce to keep you glued to the track. It is a daunting prospect.

Successive McLaren one-twos in Istanbul and Montreal have seen Lewis Hamilton and Jenson Button leapfrog Red Bull at the top of the standings but it is desperately tight and there are signs that Ferrari and Mercedes may be about to re-enter the fray.

At this point in the season if you’re not sprinting you’re standing still. Teams are throwing parts on their car with reckless abandon and the rewards can be huge.

Fernando Alonso topped practice on Friday, to the delight of his adoring home fans, and it was reckoned that the new Red Bull-style low exhaust configuration on his Ferrari may be giving him an extra half a second per lap compared with a fortnight ago.

Some people are unhappy that he essentially conducted a ‘shakedown’ of the new car during a media day at Fiorano last week – in-season testing is banned – but I say fair play to them; the rules are the same for everyone.

Mercedes and Renault are also trialling their versions of the Red Bull exhaust system here but McLaren are waiting until Silverstone to deploy theirs. Time will tell if that proves costly.

Valencia should suit street-wise McLaren

What McLaren have that the others don’t is the definitive F-Duct, another device that teams up and down the pit lane are desperate to replicate.

With the F-Duct the driver directs air flow to the rear wing to maximise straight-line speed, and it should be a big help here, as it was in Montreal.

This street circuit has a number of long straights but only medium-speed corners (and some slow ones, at turns 2, 10, 12 and 17) rather than the high-speed ones which Red Bull so enjoy.

Valencia, with its harbour setting, has clearly tried to model itself on Monaco but it only partially succeeds.

Lots of cash has been spent on giving the city a facelift – more for the America’s Cup than the F1 – but atmosphere-wise it is lagging behind. There are no vantage points of the kind you get in Monaco and the track is too spread out for my liking.

Moveable wings for 2011

Talking of arms wars, the rules of engagement for 2011 have been a major talking point out here this week, with the announcement that the FIA intends to introduce driver-adjustable rear wings, which can be deployed only to help overtake rather than defend. Lotus’s Jarno Trulli said he thought it could prove dangerous and I tend to agree.

A driver should always be able to enter Casino Square in Monte Carlo at 150mph and make any adjustment he needs to in a split second.

If you are fiddling with a booster button, or trying to raise or lower your wing, you are not concentrating on the road. In any case, look at the last race in Montreal – 60 overtaking moves – if Sunday’s race is anything like Canada, we’re in for a treat.

Never mind your vuvezelas, try 24 V8s, naturally-aspirated reciprocating engines for some banshee-screaming noise.

David writes an exclusive column for the Telegraph Newspapers’ Formula One page on behalf of Red Bull Racing F1, for whom he acts as a consultant.

I’m not sure how Tiger Woods will fare on his return to St Andrews for the Open championship this summer but if he hacks his way around the Old Course for two days, just about scrapes the cut and ends up with the also-rans come Sunday evening, I imagine it will be a lot like watching Michael Schumacher struggle to 11th place in Montreal last weekend.

He pitted three times and was still lapping over 4 seconds off the pace in his final stint. He just could not get his tyres working and in my view resorted to some pretty questionable racing in an effort to hold position. He was particularly fortunate to escape sanction for the late collision with Massa, his old protégé at Ferrari. The rules are clear: you cannot make two moves under braking. I’m not sure why they let him off.

I’m not beating up on Michael. We have had our differences in the past but I have tremendous respect for him. And I have consistently said we need to give him half a season before we judge his comeback. But with eight races gone and 11 to go, we are getting dangerously close to that tipping point.

What is wrong with him? I don’t know but something is clearly missing. It seems a case of one step forward, two steps backwards at the moment. I don’t think the reactions have gone, his fitness is fine and to be fair to him he has shown glimpses of his old race craft; the move on Alonso on the final lap in Monaco was like a visitation from the ghost of Schumi past.

If I had to guess I would say it is F1 that has changed. Michael’s struggles with the new tyres are well documented but I have another theory which is that he is not a fan of the 18,000rpm limit. The power band of the engine is very small these days; there is no torque. You spend your whole race changing gears. I didn’t really enjoy F1 towards the end of my career for this very reason.

By the way, I don’t agree with those who say he is damaging his legacy by making a comeback at the age of 41. If Michael thinks he still has something to offer then I support his decision 100 per cent. But for me it’s like U2 releasing Zooropa; average just isn’t good enough when you have come to expect excellence.

On the whole the Canadian Grand Prix was a belter. The differing strategies made for a fantastically entertaining race, with drivers having to reach the finish with their tyres right on the limit. And although the circuit was widely predicted to suit McLaren, it turned out to be a genuine three-way scrap between McLaren, Red Bull and Ferrari for the win. Just as it is for the championship. We really are being spoilt this season.

One thing that did worry me, though, was the way Lewis Hamilton ran out of fuel on his in-lap after qualifying. Like team orders, which I touched upon in my last column, this is a grey area that needs clearing up and fast. My understanding has always been that you need enough fuel to get the car back to the pits and provide a one-litre sample for the stewards. Would it be so hard to write that into the regulations?
You might get cars ‘breaking down’ mysteriously in an attempt to circumvent the rules but they would have to prove that to the stewards – which is not easy with the standard ECU.

The fact is a lap of fuel is worth a tenth of a second. Lewis claimed pole and won the race. Can I accept it was a genuine mistake on McLaren’s part?
Absolutely. Should it happen again? Never. A $10,000 fine is paltry considering the potential benefits of starting on pole. McLaren have used their joker for the season but other teams will think they can still play theirs.

Absolutely. Should it happen again? Never. A $10,000 fine is paltry considering the potential benefits of starting on pole. McLaren have used their joker for the season but other teams will think they can still play theirs.

David Coulthard writes for The Telegraph each week on behalf of Red Bull Racing F1, for whom he acts as a consultant.

You can view the Telegraph Formula 1 pages here.

The Albert Park track never fails to deliver exciting races and we think this weekends Grand Prix will be no exception – driver error will probably feature highly in the race and we think the orderly fashion into the first corner (which we saw in Bahrain) won’t be the case in Australia – expect to see some very short races for a good number of drivers – and of course we’ll have the normal “drivers getting too adventurous into turns 1,2 and 3 thing” and planting it into the barriers. It’s a good bet we’ll have numerous safety car periods – let’s hope for nothing serious though.

So who’s going to win? It’s still hard to tell who truly has the most competitive package and, like last year, it may be a case of different teams having the fastest car due to each circuits specific factors like tyre wear, car downforce characteristics and fuel efficiency. Remember last year when the Force India cars blew the competition out if the water at Spa but were back markers in the British Grand Prix? The team on the pace constantly changed throughout the season last year and it may be very similar this year.

We tend to find that whichever team has a fast car out of the box at the first race tends to dominate the first four fly away races (until everyone can get their development and upgrade packages on their cars once the series returns to Europe). With this in mind you’d have to say Red Bull will be the team to beat this weekend unless weather conditions throw a spanner in the works during Saturdays qualifying. McLaren appear to have a faster car (going by Free Practise times) but is this simply low fuel headline grabbing runs or true pace? Ferrari on the surface appear to be off the pace but Mr Alonso is far from concerned which would make you think that the Italian team are more than happy with their single lap pace and are concentrating on the handling of the car when heavy with fuel – time will tell…..

Further down the pecking order it remains to be seen if Mercedes GP are simply struggling to unleash the true potential of their car, due to not finding the optimum set up, or whether it’s back to the drawing board to design some new bits to find the grip and downforce they’re lacking. BMW Sauber have suprised a few people with the speed in which they’ve copied McLarens F Duct but whether it’s effective and gives them an advantage – or indeed if it’s even used on race day remains to be seen. Force India are quietly confident they’ve designed a good car this year and with a Mercedes engine in the back anythings possible – watch this space.

We think it’ll be a struggle for the new teams again this weekend and a finish on race day has to be the target for Hispania, Virgin Racing and Lotus – we wish the guys well during this really difficult time getting their teams established.

So who’s going to win this weekend?

Who knows but we’ll be watching with interest to see if the no refuelling rules really have completely ruined the 2010 season or whether Bahrain was just a case of another boring Tilke circuit where overtaking is about as possible as an MP telling the truth.

Enjoy – and we’d really love to hear your views on the race.

After a relatively rapid period of testing and preparation the cars have all been unveiled, the teams have all confirmed their drivers and we almost know which teams are going to be racing in 2010. There’s a million and one questions which have already been well documented – Will Michael Schumacher still be on the pace, Will Lewis Hamilton blow Jenson Button away at McLaren, Will Red Bull’s reliability improve enough to let Mark and Sebastian have another real crack at the title, Will Alonso bring Ferrari back to it’s winning ways and will Massa let him?  These are all questions soon to be answered. What we want to know is simply:

Will the racing be any good?

As we said last year – We’re not interested in the politics and scandals - and we absolutely want to see less of the ridiculous penalties which have blighted previous races and turned the whole series into a farce at times. So will the racing be good?

Mutterings from the paddock have been mixed. On one hand it could be a great season with drivers having to overtake to win races rather than wait for pit stops and at the same time protect their tyres throughout the race or risk a drop in performance and ultimately lose them the win…….

or

………the season could go the other way in that the fastest cars stay at the front and the slowest cars stay at the back – leading to dull and boring processional races.

Let’s not get too negative though. With Michael Schumacher’s return, Jenson’t move to McLaren and at least five teams in with a real chance of winning races (Ferrari, McLaren, Red Bull, Mercedes GP and surprisingly BMW Sauber) 2010 could prove to be a fantastic and memorable season – heck we haven’t even mentioned that old wet weather conditions curve ball or the new circuit we’ll visit in Korea later in the year.

We’re also looking forward to more awesome Formula One coverage from the BBC and wish David, Jake, Eddie, Martin and the rest of the team all the best for the new season.

Let’s hope 2010 is a season to remember for all the RIGHT reasons. Enjoy the first race and we look forward to your replies and thoughts throughout the year.

Have fun.

I guess we face an almost agonizing four months before we start to find the answers

Lewis